On paper, Kamala Harris is ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump by about 2 points nationwide. Even in four of the seven crucial ‘battleground’ states, Kamala is leading, albeit by a very narrow margin. Yet, doubts persist about her chances of victory in the November election.
The main reason for saying this is that the strong optimism that had emerged among Democratic Party supporters after Kamala Harris’s entry into the election has now essentially stalled. Experts say that there may not be much room left for Kamala to gain additional support, or if there is, it’s minimal. Currently, this poll result is within the margin of error. This means that if this survey is accurate, Kamala could either win or lose. The test will be on November 5th.
According to last Friday’s poll published in The Wall Street Journal, although leading at the national level, Kamala’s position in the most important battleground states remains virtually unchanged. To ensure victory, she must win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, by whatever margin. Doubts are arising about that.
Take Michigan as an example. In Friday’s Wall Street Journal poll, Kamala leads in this state by 47 to 45. This situation has remained virtually unchanged since last August.
But if we include Green Party’s Jill Stein, the result could change.
The Muslim and Arab vote poses a big problem for Kamala in Michigan. About 300,000 Arab and Muslim citizens live here, of whom 200,000 are registered voters. Many of them have turned away from the Democrats due to Israeli attacks in Gaza over the past year and now in Lebanon. They complain that Israel has engaged in such indiscriminate genocide with U.S. support. A spokesperson for Muslims in this state said he doesn’t know a single Arab or Muslim who will vote for Kamala. They will either vote for Trump or abstain from voting.
Not just Arab-Muslim voters, progressive voters in this state are also dissatisfied with the Biden-Kamala administration’s pro-Israel policy on the Israel issue. Many of them might vote for Green Party’s Jill Stein in protest. Biden won Michigan by a large margin in 2020, but this time it’s thought that the vote difference between Kamala and Trump won’t be more than a few thousand. In 2016, Jill Stein received 51,000 votes for the Green Party here. If the same happens this time, it will be bad news for Kamala. It can be recalled that in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in another battleground state, Wisconsin, because of the 31,000 votes that went to Jill Stein’s box. The vote difference between her and Trump there was 21,000 votes.
There’s also concern about Pennsylvania. Kamala was leading there by two or more points. But in this new poll, she has fallen behind by 1 point (46:45). New information has emerged, which makes it clear why or how Trump has cornered Kamala in this state. Here, she is behind Trump among African-American men. Trump is also ahead among white men without college degrees. It’s true that Kamala has more support among female voters, she’s ahead by 13 percentage points, but there’s debate about whether this margin will be enough to overcome her lack of support among male voters.
Keeping that in mind, former President Barack Obama came to Pennsylvania two days ago on Kamala’s behalf. He is still a popular politician in this country. In an election speech in Pittsburgh, Obama essentially scolded the African-American men present at the meeting. He said, ‘How can you expect that a billionaire, who is not interested in anything other than his own interests, will protect your interests?’
In another battleground state, Arizona, Kamala is uncomfortable with the Hispanic men there. A significant portion of them support Trump. As a group, Hispanics are more conservative, and many of them have developed animosity towards Kamala and the Democrats’ support for homosexuality and transgender individuals. Here, Kamala leads in absolute numbers (59:35), but about 35 percent of Hispanic voters in this state still haven’t decided who they will vote for. On immigration issues and economic questions, many of them trust Trump more than Kamala. In fact, not just in Pennsylvania, but across the country, 9 percent more voters have greater confidence in Trump’s leadership compared to Kamala on these two issues.
Many Bangladeshis who are registered as voters in this country have attitudes similar to Hispanics. Despite knowing about his anti-Muslim stance, they are in favor of Trump. Many of them oppose continued illegal immigration, and many have openly racist attitudes. They also despise the Democrats’ liberal moral and social policies. Many of them believe that the economy was much better during Trump’s time. Although not very large in number, in battleground states like Michigan, where the election result will likely be determined by a margin of a few thousand votes, Bangladeshi-Americans could play a significant role.
There are now only three weeks left until the election. In this final period, Kamala has to fight another obstacle, which is information distortion and outright lies. Donald Trump has always been shamelessly lying profusely. This time is no exception. In Springfield, Ohio, a rumor spread that immigrants from Haiti were stealing and eating their neighbors’ dogs and cats. This is false, and city officials have explained this in detail. Trump is still spreading this story. Because, even if it’s a lie, such inflammatory words are well-received by anti-immigration people.
Another problem has arisen concerning natural disasters. Multiple southern states have been devastated by two consecutive hurricanes and storm surges. Trump is going around saying, without any evidence, that the Biden-Kamala administration is intentionally not sending aid to these Republican-leaning states. A congressman from this party has even started saying that Democrats can control the climate and are selectively sending hurricanes to Republican-supporting states. It’s the raving of a madman, but there’s no shortage of people in this country who believe in such ravings.
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